Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
